England's best hope is to bat first and dig in for victory but Indian spin onslaught looms

|

UPDATED:

22:00 GMT, 13 November 2012

It is not just history but also all cricketing logic that tells you England’s attempt to earn their first series win in India for almost 30 years will end badly.

Not only are England attempting to go where very few have gone successfully before but they are doing so at the end of a year in which all their hard-earned progress has threatened to collapse around their ears.

This is arguably the toughest assignment in world cricket, tougher than home and away Ashes successes and tougher still than running into a South African brick wall last summer that saw England’s world No 1 status crumble.

The eyes have it: England captain Alastair Cook is ready to lead his team in the first Test in Ahmedabad

Who could have foreseen, when England were thrashing India 4-0 less than 18 months ago, the chain of events that sees them as firm underdogs with plenty to prove under a new captain in this much-anticipated return series

The talk after that glorious Indian summer was of world domination but it has been followed by the return of old failings against Pakistani and Sri Lankan spin, that defeat by South Africa and the departure of captain Andrew Strauss at the start of a bitter dispute that saw Kevin Pietersen cast into the wilderness.

Pietersen is back now and his ‘reintegration’ has appeared to have gone well in the early weeks of this tour, but the real test of whether the team spirit Andy Flower holds so dear has survived will come here in the first Test.

That is when we will see whether Pietersen really does hold England in greater affection than the Delhi Daredevils these days and whether his fellow batsmen really have learned their lessons in playing high-quality slow bowling in conditions that remain alien to them.

Bristling with intent: Tim Bresnan (left) lays on the suncream in the nets to mock Jonny Bairstow's moustache for Movember

It is the batting that has let England down since their giddy rise to the top of world cricket and it is how the batsmen cope now against the spin threat of Ravi Ashwin, Pragyan Ojha and possibly Harbhajan Singh that will go a long way towards deciding this series.

On the surface all looks well after the extensive practice provided by a Dubai training camp and three first-class warm-up matches. Five of England’s batsmen have scored centuries on tour already while Nick Compton, with three half-centuries full of nuggety application, has earned his chance to step into Strauss’s opening shoes alongside new leader Alastair Cook.

Yet all those runs have come against attacks lacking quality spin of any kind — even so, part-timer Yuvraj Singh was able to take five wickets against England in Mumbai — with India coach Duncan Fletcher’s fingertips all over a deliberate and canny policy to starve the visiting batsmen of the practice they need most.

It's catching: England wicketkeeper Matt Prior (left) dives during a fielding drill on Tuesday

There is little mystery about Ashwin
and Ojha — on paper they look weaker than the Pakistan pair of Saeed
Ajmal and Abdur Rehman, who caused so much consternation — but they have
proved far too potent for West Indies and New Zealand in India and
England’s spin demons are etched deep into their psyche.

It is a surprise to see that what little success England have had in India in modern times has invariably come when they have bowled first because surely their best chance in this four-Test series is to win the toss, bat and dig in for totals as near to 500 as possible.

Dangerman: India's new superstar Virat Kohli

A top three of Cook, Compton and
Jonathan Trott will earn few marks for artistic impression but they
could prove a mighty effective combination here where concentration and
discipline will be key. Only if these hardy competitors provide a
decent platform can Pietersen and Ian Bell, who just could take any
match away from India, be expected to dominate.

Samit Patel has been known more for his battle against the bulge than what he has done in the middle in his international career so far but this might be the series where he shows that there is more to him than meets the eye.

Patel is an accomplished player of spin and an under-rated spinner himself and he will take the No 6 position now confident that his time as a Test player has come. I just have a hunch that he will have a productive all-round series.

The bowling has stood up well in the face of England’s annus horribilis but their hopes now have not been helped by question marks over three members of the first-choice attack.

Stuart Broad looked fully fit in the nets on Tuesday but Steven Finn was not able to bowl and seems certain to miss out on the first Test with Tim Bresnan set to step in for him. Graeme Swann, meanwhile, will be short of overs even though he has now returned here after spending some time at home with his unwell baby daughter.

Getting loose: India batsman Yuvraj Singh receives a massage at The Sardar Patel Stadium

India were a shambles in England last year but are a totally different proposition at home and will be desperate to make up for the embarrassment inflicted upon them when they lost the status of top Test dogs themselves.

Yet they have their own issues to contemplate. Rahul Dravid and VVS Laxman have gone while Sachin Tendulkar cannot go on for ever and both Virender Sehwag and Zaheer Khan have been showing signs of their age.

If Ashwin and Ojha hold the bowling key, then much could depend with the bat on India’s new superstar Virat Kohli, who has enjoyed the bulk of his success so far in limited-overs cricket and has only played in 10 Tests.

Cook has been surpassing expectations ever since he was plucked from an A tour in the Caribbean to score a hundred on debut in Nagpur six years ago and at least he knows that few will expect England to still be in the series when he returns to the scene of that initial triumph for the final Test next month.

If they are, then much of the misery of the last year, including the turmoil of the Pietersen saga, will have been forgotten and England will be back on track. But it will be a mighty difficult task. I expect India to win by two clear Tests.