Strength in depth gives England the edge against South Africa

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UPDATED:

14:54 GMT, 17 July 2012

Both teams have been warily circling the Basil D’Oliveira
Trophy this week, too sensible to make a pre-emptive grab. Yet amid all the
talk of a seam-bowling shootout – as if the batsmen will simply resemble
coconuts in a fairground shy – it’s only fair to ask which of England or South
Africa have more chinks in their overall armour

For if this really is a question about survival of the
fittest (and the ICC rankings will tell you that, technically, as of the
weekend, No 1 v No 2 means the Ashes), then isn’t a team only as strong as its
weakest links

And it is here that England – despite the distraction of
Kevin Pietersen’s increasingly self-centred posturing – have the edge. I know,
I know. But hear me out.

Centre of attention: Kevin Pietersen (left) is set to line up against South Africa

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While South Africa possess three all-time greats (Graeme
Smith, Jacques Kallis and Dale Steyn) to England’s none (sorry, KP, although
Jimmy Anderson may have joined the elite by the time he retires), it is
England’s strength in depth that leaves them better placed to avoid the kind of
one-session meltdown that could cost, say, a scandalously truncated three-Test
series.

Of England’s top seven, only Ravi Bopara is a potential
weakness – not because he looks out of touch (he doesn’t), but because his love
of the game can become crippling when he’s under pressure. Bopara knows that a
bad series here will leave the way open once more for Eoin Morgan and Jonny
Bairstow. If he wants it too much, South Africa will smell it.

But England will reason that South Africa now have three
potential troughs in a batting line-up that includes the awe-inspiring peaks of
Smith, Kallis, Hashim Amla and AB de Villiers – a quartet to rank with any in
world cricket.

It seems unlikely that Alviro Petersen will give either
Anderson or Stuart Broad sleepless nights at the top of the order. A decent
player he may be, and in his most recent Test, at Wellington, he made a
career-best 156. But a first-class average of 39, in the context of a top-of-the-table
clash, is no more than adequate.

On paper, a 6-7 combination of Jacques Rudolph and JP Duminy
adds serious depth. But Rudolph, experienced though he is in English
conditions, is still readjusting to the middle order after beginning his Test
renaissance last year as Smith’s opening partner.

Pressure: South Africa is a massive series for Ravi Bopara

And history is yet to record too many instances of proper
batsmen – as opposed to marauding all-rounders prepared to throw caution to the
wind – influencing the result from No 7. Duminy is said to have sorted out his
technique against the short ball, but what about falling lbw to Graeme Swann

Less ponderable, perhaps, is the absence of Mark Boucher,
whose eye injury may not, mercifully, be as serious as was first feared. For no
matter how talented a sportsman de Villiers is, better rookie keepers than him
have been foxed by the late swing in England. Equally, no one can say for sure
that his batting will not be affected by keeping wicket. In this, there is an
element of crossed fingers.

Tough Test: South Africans (from left) Jacques Rudolph, Alviro Petersen, Jacques Kallis and Vernon Philander during a nets session at The Kia Oval

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To dissect South Africa’s bowling in the same way feels like
clutching at straws, except to say that Morne Morkel is a better operator with
the new ball (68 Test wickets at 25) than he is at first change (58 at 34); and
that they must avoid the mistake of replacing Imran Tahir with Albie Morkel at
The Kia Oval in the event of more wet weather.

In the balance of their attack, with Kallis as the fourth
seamer, the South Africans can rightly claim to possess more options. Dale
Steyn is the quickest bowler on either side, and Vernon Philander the most
accurate. Morne Morkel retains the greatest potential to take three wickets in
three overs. And Tahir’s googly ought to place any lower order on red alert.

But England will comfort themselves with the thought that,
if both sides lost a front-line seamer, it is they who would suffer less
disruption: witness the selection of Albie Morkel in place of the injured and
highly promising Marchant de Lange.

Steven Finn and Graham Onions, on the other hand, are both
primed to step in at a moment’s notice. Neither would weaken the attack.

South Africa are self-evidently a classy side. They won here
four years ago, and have enough high-calibre players to beat England again. But
scratch at the surface of excellence, and England will tell themselves there is
hope.

A prediction, you say Go on then: despite all this, South
Africa’s top guns to mask other deficiencies and secure a rainy 1-1 draw –
enough for them to retain the Basil D’Oliveira Trophy, but for England to hold
on to the No 1 ranking.

THAT WAS THE WEEK THAT WAS

Such is a spinner’s life

Peter Such is a man on a mission. A player perhaps most
famous for two deeds at Old Trafford – 6 for 67 on his Test debut against
Australia in 1993, and a glorious 72-minute duck against New Zealand in his
final Test, in 1999 – was recently named the ECB’s new National Spin Coach. And
though he’s confident England have enough established spinners to see them
through the next few years at the highest level, he has aimed his sights on
changing the culture further down the ladder.

Man on a mission: Peter Such (left) with Derbyshire Disabled CC coach Paul Roe

‘Counties do recognise the value of a top-quality spinner,’
Such told the Top Spin last week. ‘But not everyone invests the time in
developing their own. Some tend to sign a ready-made overseas player. Spinners
begin to mature around the age of 26. For batters and quicks, it’s more like
23. So you can’t judge them by the same criteria.’

Eye on the ball: Such (right) watches Robson Wadsworth from Alvaston bowling

Speaking on behalf of the Sky Sports ECB Coach Education
Programme, Such said this summer’s miserable weather had hardly helped county
cricket’s young spin brethren. ‘If they’re bowling less, they take even more
time to mature. Our job is to create an over-supply pipeline of young spin
bowlers, and to get that age of maturation down to 25 or 24.’ We wish him luck.

The world according to Kevin

Kevin Pietersen appears to have made so many U-turns in the
past few days you wonder whether he’ll be representing England or South Africa
at The Oval on Thursday. But it seems that part of his logic for wanting to
miss next summer’s two-Test series against New Zealand so he can play in all
seven weeks of the IPL is that the New Zealanders themselves won’t be at full
strength either (because, naturally, of the IPL). And, in the weird and
wonderful world of Kevin, two wrongs apparently add up to a right.

The harsh truth by a different name

The Top Spin has always enjoyed the different ways in which
players try to get round the fact that their side was simply beaten by the
better team. ‘We weren’t consistent enough’ is a classic, suggestive as it is
of a nirvana in which greater consistency is in no way related to greater
ability. ‘We’re good!’ they imply. ‘It’s just this damn inconsistency that
keeps getting in the way…’

That's a new one: Tim Southee tried to explain New Zealand's defeat

So black caps off to New Zealand’s Tim Southee, who provided
a novel twist on the theme when he tried to rationalise his side’s defeat in
the fourth one-day international against West Indies in St Kitts. ‘Wickets at
the wrong time hurt us,’ he said. ‘We have to think of those key moments in
games.’ Rough translation: West Indies were better than us.

Bangladesh in Blackheath

If you happen to be in south London on Wednesday (apologies
to our overseas reader), then why not pop into Blackheath Cricket Club to catch
an unexpected glimpse of Bangladesh’s Mohammad Ashraful – arguably Test
cricket’s most unfulfilled talent. Ashraful is playing for MCC against the
Tower Hamlets District schools team as part of the club’s efforts to spread the
gospel in less privileged parts of the capital. The match starts at 11.30am.